Professor emeritus John Walsh in the university’s department of atmospheric sciences conducted a study testing the accuracy of the almanac’s monthly temperatures and precipitation forecasts by comparing them with the actual weather data over a five-year period. “Specifically, the accuracy rate in forecasting the change in temperature versus the previous winter across all 18 regions of the U.S. was 72.2%, while our accuracy rate in forecasting the change in precipitation was 77.8% This is below are traditional average rate of 80%,” the website states.īut a study at the University of Illinois said the almanac’s accuracy is closer to a coin toss.
The almanac reported its overall accuracy rate for the U.S. One exception was in February, when the month's temperature average was 2.5 degrees below normal. It considers its temperature prediction for the northeast a miss although it was "close to predicting the proper temperature trends."Īccording to the Weather Service, the monthly temperature averages in Rochester last winter were between 2 and 5 degrees above normal for most of last winter. How accurate was the almanac's forecast last winter? It said the 2020-21 winter season would bring warmer-than-average temperatures across the eastern and northern parts of the United States. How accurate is the Old Farmer's Almanac? Snow can fall here as late as May, though it is uncommon.
While flurries often fly in Rochester as early as October, the first measurable snowfall of the season typically lands in November. The least snowy season was one year earlier, when only 58.1 inches fell, according to the Weather Service. Rochester's snowiest season in the last two decades was in 2002-03, when 135.2 inches fell. The normal seasonal snowfall average is around 100 inches. Last winter, 69.6 inches of snow fell in Rochester, with the snowiest month of February tallying 29.9 inches at the Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo. The snowiest periods are predicted to occur in mid- and late December, from early to mid-January, and in mid-March.įall foliage: See where autumn is the most stunning in New York state 10 places to go for apple cider and doughnuts in the Rochester area this fall 7 awesome activities to add to your fall bucket list in Rochester Penfield farm takes doughnuts and cider to the next level Going to the Adirondacks this fall? Here's 10 scenic hikes to try besides the High Peaks The coldest periods are expected to be in early, mid-, and late December mid-January and early to mid-February.
The snowiest periods are predicted to be in early December, early January, and mid-February. The coldest periods are expected to be in early, mid-, and late December through much of January and in early and mid-February.
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